Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Did Barack Obama supporters cross over from Illinois into Iowa during the 2008 democratic primary?
The Map above shows the Blue districts that were Barack Obama's 2008 Iowa Caucus victories. The heaviest concentration of Iowa district victories border Illinois and Wisconsin. I am not implying Barack Obama did not have support, he obviously did. But the right side of the map, right next to Illinois, is basically all Barack Obama.
The math is interesting. It would literally take only 6 or 7 caucus district reversals to give Hillary Clinton an Iowa win and Barack Obama a loss. Clearly, Illinois could have easily influenced 10 to 12 caucus districts.
The combination of Barack Obama and John Edwards combining forces, Illinois on the border, Barack Obama's verbal bashing of Hillary Clinton for remaining on the ballot in Michigan as being a threat to Iowa and New Hampshire always being the first two presidential contests, and it really makes Hillary Clinton's very close third place finish all the more remarkable, and Barack Obama's Iowa victory less so.
However, at the time of the victory, all that was reported was that Barack Obama had won and that if Hillary Clinton lost in New Hampshire she should give up. Thanks media, thanks for doing a bang up job of reporting the excitement you felt over the favored, experienced candidate losing so early on without any additional vetting of the situation.
Caucuses use 88% less voters than primaries to select each delegate, making any cross over votes from Illinois into Iowa of having the power of 10 votes. Iowa is known for taking very seriously their role in the presidential election process since they go first, so would it have been possible to "infiltrate" the Iowa voting process from Illinois? That I do not know, its just that the heavily concentrated victories along the Illinois border sure makes one wonder.